Real vs. Nominal Interest Rates: Why the Gap Matters
Matt Hardy
A 5% rate can be generous or punishing depending on inflation. Here is how real and nominal rates differ, and why the gap shapes savers, borrowers and markets.
Inflation & Interest
Real Wages Slip as Gasoline Costs Outpace Paychecks
Real average hourly earnings fell 0.5% in September and 0.7% from a year earlier, as gasoline hit $4.33 a gallon, about $1.27 above last year. What the numbers show and…
10-Year Treasury Near 5%: What Moves Yields and Mortgages
The 10-year Treasury yield ranged from 5.09% to 5.31% in early October while 30-year mortgages sat at 7.40%. A look at what drives yields and what the rate gap means…
Fed Oct. 27-28 Meeting: What Markets Are Pricing In
Prediction markets put the odds of a Fed hold at about 87% for the Oct. 27-28 meeting, with a quarter-point hike near 14%. Here is the backdrop, the data in…
September CPI: Gasoline Drives a 3.7% Inflation Reading
The September CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over 12 months, with a 9.1% jump in gasoline doing most of the work while core inflation held at 2.6%.…
The Fed Just Raised Rates for the First Time Since 2023 — Defying the President Who Picked the Chair
The Fed raised rates 12-0 for the first time since 2023, with Chair Kevin Warsh defying the president who nominated him. Here's the full story behind the decision, the political…
August CPI Rises to 3.4% as Gas Prices Surge, Cementing Fed Rate Hike Bets
August CPI rose to 3.4% annually as gas prices surged, pushing Fed rate hike odds toward 70% ahead of next week's meeting. Here's the full breakdown of what drove the…
Mortgage Rates Hit a One-Year High: What’s Pushing 30-Year Rates Toward 7%
Mortgage rates hit a one-year high in September 2026, with the 30-year fixed at 6.71%-6.89% depending on the tracker. Here's what's driving the increase and whether rates could reach 7%.
Core PCE Stuck at 3.3%: What the Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Really Shows
Core PCE held at 3.3% in July, stuck above the Fed's target for a second straight month. Here's what the Fed's preferred inflation gauge shows, why it's plateaued, and what…
The “Higher for Longer” Era: What Sustained High Interest Rates Mean for US Businesses and Investors
Alex
For over a decade following the 2008 financial crisis, the economic landscape was defined by a singular, pervasive reality: cheap money. Interest rates were anchored near zero, and central bank…