Q3 Earnings Scorecard: Beat Rates, Guidance and Valuation at the 9% Mark

The third-quarter earnings season is only a sliver complete, but the early scorecard already offers a useful read on how corporate America is handling high oil prices and elevated Treasury yields. According to FactSet’s Earnings Insight dated October 16, 2026, 9% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual Q3 results. That is a small sample, dominated by banks and a few early reporters, so every figure below can still shift materially as the heavy-reporting weeks arrive.

The headline numbers

Of the companies that have reported, 84% beat EPS estimates, with an aggregate EPS surprise of +2.6%. On the revenue side, 67% beat estimates, with an aggregate revenue surprise of +1.1%. The blended earnings growth rate for the quarter, which combines actual results with estimates for companies yet to report, stands at 29.0%. That is slightly lower than 29.4% a week earlier and 29.2% at September 30. Blended revenue growth is 12.6%, up from 12.4% last week and 12.2% at quarter-end.

The slight drift in blended earnings growth, from 29.4% to 29.0% in a week, is worth noting without over-reading. Early in a season, a handful of results can nudge the blended figure in either direction, and the underlying expectation had been running higher: FactSet’s October 2 preview put expected Q3 growth at 29.5% and its October 9 report at 29.6%.

A narrow-to-broad story by sector

Growth is not evenly spread. FactSet shows ten of eleven sectors growing earnings year over year. Energy leads at 127.6%, followed by Information Technology at 65.1%, Communication Services at 50.1% and Materials at 27.1%. Financials sit at 3.0%, while Health Care is the only sector in decline at -2.6%. On revenue, all eleven sectors are growing, led by Information Technology at 40.6%, Energy at 24.7% and Communication Services at 15.6%, with Utilities the slowest at 9.4%.

Two points stand out. First, the Energy figure reflects the price backdrop: Brent crude settled at $104.72 on October 9, according to the Associated Press, so year-over-year comparisons for producers look very different from those for fuel-consuming industries. Second, the gap between the leading sectors and the single-digit sectors means headline growth of roughly 29% describes a handful of areas far more than the typical company. Investors comparing a diversified portfolio with the index figure should keep that dispersion in mind.

Early bank prints

Banks supplied much of the first batch. Newsquawk’s earnings headlines list several regional lenders that topped consensus EPS: Regions Financial reported adjusted EPS of $0.73 against $0.66 expected, M&T Bank $5.08 against $4.93, and Citizens Financial $1.41 against $1.39. Net interest income at M&T of $1.79 billion was slightly below the $1.82 billion expected, a reminder that an EPS beat and a quality-of-earnings question can coexist. Financials growth of 3.0% in the FactSet sector table is modest, which is consistent with a sector where results are being measured against high expectations for funding costs and credit.

What guidance is saying

Guidance has been unusually constructive for the quarter that just ended. FactSet reported that 116 companies issued Q3 EPS guidance, of which 72 were positive, or 62%. The 72 positive guiders is a record since FactSet began tracking the metric in 2006, and compares with a five-year average of 42 companies. Estimate revisions during the quarter were also unusual: the bottom-up Q3 EPS estimate rose 1.4% between June 30 and September 30, against a five-year average change of a 2.2% decline and a ten-year average of a 2.5% decline. Analysts typically cut numbers during a quarter, so a rise points to forecasts that lagged reality, largely in Energy and Information Technology.

Looking ahead, the evidence is thinner. Only eight companies have issued Q4 EPS guidance so far, split four negative and four positive; the 50% negative share is below the five-year average of 60%. For full-year 2026 and 2027, FactSet counts 99 of roughly 268 companies issuing negative guidance, or 37%. The Q4 sample is too small to carry a conclusion.

Valuation context

The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 19.0, below the five-year average of 19.8 and just under the ten-year average of 19.1, and unchanged from September 30. It was 20.4 on June 30. In other words, earnings estimates have risen faster than prices over the quarter, compressing the multiple even as the S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54 on October 9 following a record set earlier that week, per the AP. That arithmetic matters when yields are high: the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on October 9, and a lower earnings multiple partly reflects investors demanding more for equity risk when bonds pay more.

What to watch as reporting accelerates

• Beat-rate drift. Early samples often overstate beat rates; watch whether the 84% EPS figure normalizes as industrials, technology and consumer companies report.
• Revenue beats versus EPS beats. A 67% revenue beat rate trailing the EPS rate suggests margins and buybacks are contributing as well as sales.
• Health Care. It is the only sector with negative expected growth; any change to the -2.6% reading is a signal of how earnings breadth is evolving.
• Q4 guidance tone. With oil near $100 and elevated yields, outlooks may matter more than the quarter just ended.

Bottom line

The early scorecard is strong on beats, strong on guidance and uneven on breadth, with a valuation that is not stretched by the index’s own history. It is also a nine-percent sample. The next two weeks will show whether these ratios hold when most of the index reports.

This article is informational, not investment advice. Figures reflect the sources named and may be revised; weekly index closing figures for October 12-16 were not verified for this piece.

Sources: FactSet Insight and Earnings Insight; Associated Press (via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution); Newsquawk.